What level of proof do you need to accuse a state of murder?
If you are the leader of a state, you will want to discourage your intelligence agents from defecting. It’s always been a problem when you employ individuals because they have the ability to act duplicitously. They can bite the hand that feeds them and start taking food from another hand. They will play one state against another for a variety of motives. It might be blackmail, monetary gain, vengeance, political or other motives. What ever the motive these are not individuals either side can trust. They are insincere, loose canons with low or no morals – the opposite of the fictional James Bond if you like!
A state should then be glad when double agents are discovered and run to the side they upset least. Kim Philby was such an agent for the USSR and fled the UK to live in a communist style block of flats. Not so glamorous.
Sergei Scripal defected to the UK and ended up in a semi on a dull looking housing estate in Salisbury. A slightly more salubrious end to a shabby career. He made no attempt to change his identity and walked around in public as if he deserved nothing less. There is now a police investigation into his attempted murder. Perhaps it will come to light who he upset when living in Salisbury. Had he become a keen rose gardener and supporter of Salisbury United football team, or had the leopard retained his spots? You have to really upset people to make them risk murdering you. So who and how many other countries, organisations, people had he upset since his defection, as well as Russia before his leap to ‘safety’.
It’s like a detective novel in which numerous characters have means, motive and opportunity and the plot moves from one to the other. Each time, the reader thinks the murderer is discovered, another character is introduced, also with means, motive and opportunity.
We should all know by now, that a murder investigation takes time. How often has a senior police officer been interviewed after a high profile, public interest murder to announce that the investigation is ‘on going’ and ‘all leads are being followed’ and ‘we appeal for witnesses to come forward’. Investigations are slow and painstaking because there has to be enough evidence to convict the suspect in a court of law beyond any doubt. Until then, the suspect is considered innocent.
Compare this well understood scenario with the present accusations against Russia and it’s leader, Vladimir Putin. He asks to see the evidence that Russia was involved. Not an unreasonable request, surely?
Initially he declined to comment, when asked by Prime Minister Teresa May if he did it, or knows how the nerve agent left Russia. The ‘no comment’ answer he gave is what most solicitors advise their clients to do. Perfectly legal and not an admission of guilt. Yet the UK government and it’s press, seem to be applying a lower standard of proof that in a criminal court – even though what happened was criminal. If the gun was made in China, this proves the Chinese government committed the murder? Well no! Where a gun or nerve agent is made, does not prove that country is guilty.
But perhaps I am missing the point. Perhaps there is a political agenda here, where accusations are made to suit a general mood of distrust, disapproval and condemnation by the UK towards Russia. Perhaps that agenda is more important than things like facts, in which case you have to ask, why?
Remember that the first world war was started with an assassination of the Arch Duke Ferdinand by a Serb. Austria and Serbia strutted around each other with the backing of their respective European allies. After the first shot, the hell which was to be the ‘war to end all wars’, was almost inevitable. So could there be anything more important than being certain of your facts before starting the next world war? Should we go to war based on evidence or a catalogue of assumptions and prejudices? Even if there will be no hot war, the cold war was no holiday – for those who remember or know their history.
It is as if we have not learnt, as a human race, that history has a way of repeating itself when change does not rectify mistakes.
When we remember the Prime Minister Tony Blair, telling parliament that Sadam Hussein has to be removed and his weapons of mass destruction destroyed, we should remember how most believed him or gave him the benefit of the doubt. Very simplisticly we had been told that Sadam Hussein was a ‘bad guy’ and by inference everyone who opposed him was a ‘good guy’. This some how justified the Allies to commit the evil Sadam was accused of.
Now the United Kingdom has a foreign secretary who wishes to stylise Russia’s hosting of the World Cup as Nazi Germany’s hosting of the Olympic games in 1936. The logic of the metaphor is plain. ‘Bad guy’ and ‘sporting event’ are the same. But isn’t that, well, over simplistic! Does the metaphor really fit? Should heart rule head or head rule heart when it comes to war making?
I am not suggesting Mr Putin is a nice guy…I don’t think even he, would want that name. But he is as cunning as an Arctic fox, an actor with as many faces as suits his need, a master strategist and – look out Boris – a world statesman.
When he asked for the evidence that Russia attempted to kill Mr Scripal, it was a moment he had planned for. For certain he has answers for the events of the next six months because the politicians of the United Kingdom, excepting Jeremy Corbin the labour leader, have reacted exactly as they were meant to react by somebody or some agency. That person or agency is very likely to be behind the attack in Salisbury.
If you don’t follow me, then watch Sergio Leone’s ‘A Fist Full of Dollars’ and take notes. It’s what the British used to be good at – divide and rule – but obviously, now our politicians are divided and being ruled.
The disunited of the United Kingdom, have to get used to the idea that they are now pawns on the world black and white board, not a King or Queen.
(At least that is, until the scaffolding comes down from the control tower of the air craft carrier I saw parked in Portsmouth harbour last week. And when the air craft arrive in 2020 and the software integration problems are solved – Britain will be out of Europe and ‘great’ again – Putin permitting.)