Every Breath You Take

For about eight years now I have been driving a 2.2 litre diesel estate Toyota. The ‘Top Gear’ television presenters drove a selection of similar cars across Europe to see which went the furthest. Jeremy Clarkson found that his diesel Jag used so little fuel that he ran the air-con and anything else he could to use more fuel. Large cars have space for large fuel tanks, so their range can be phenomenal. Mine will drive from southern Spain to the north coast of Spain without stopping – a journey of 1000km.

Last week I hired an ultra small Toyota Aygo car in the UK; a nice little automatic with a petrol engine. When I came to fill up the tank I was disappointed to find that it had travelled about 45mpg whereas my trustee diesel gives me over 55 mpg.

So why are diesel cars getting such a bad press at the moment? Diesel engines were preferred in 1997 by the European Union as a response to the Tokyo Climate Change Protocol. These engines produce on average 120g of CO2 per km whilst petrol engines reach 200g of CO2 per km. This is because diesel engines cold burn and so use less fuel. These figures do not include the energy used to make and dispose of the vehicle most of which will come from fossil fuels. It makes sense to make cars that last several decades in order to stretch out the environmental impact of production and disposal.

But the problems with just the emissions from internal combustion engines, has been re-defined. Whilst CO2 emissions must continue to be reduced, it has been recognised that the toxic gases and particulates from engines are causing a serious health risk – especially for children.

So when you examine these two types of engines, the toxic gas produced by older diesel cars is Nitrogen Oxide, in various compounds. Petrol cars can reduce this with a catalytic converter whilst diesel cars require particulate filters that are regularly maintained. If they are maintained then the NO gases gases from diesel cars can be reduced by 90%.

Governments have been victims of their own ‘political’ thinking; putting problems into compartments rather than viewing the whole issue and how each aspect of it interconnects.

Complexity challenges even those minds with an expensive private education (i.e. politicians). The lazy solution is to reduce the problem to something people can understand – especially voters.

The bottom line is that neither petrol nor diesel engines should be in use in the 21st century. There should already be ‘electric only’ zones in all urban centres with buses and taxis leading the way.

Cars do not need to be scrapped on account of their motive power source becoming a problem. New zero carbon, zero particulate engines can be retro-fitted – even into fondly maintained ‘classic’ cars. Friends of the Earth believe we need to achieve this in less than a decade, whilst the UK government thinks 2050 acceptable.

When I was a student in London in the 1970’s, I hung a sign under my bicycle saddle with the words;

No Noise, No Fumes’

I didn’t buy a car until I was 30. Was I ahead of my time? No.

Fritchie Early Electric Car

Electric cars had been the brain child of inventors in the 1830s. By 1900, New York City had a fleet of electric taxis. The electric car designed by an American, Oliver Fritchie, could travel 100 miles between charges but it could not compete with the Model T Ford on price or range. The rest, as they say, is history, because in those times governments were oblivious to the consequential problem they were leaving their ancestors – us.

1970’s Electric Car – with only a 40 mile range and apparently you had to stand on the roof.

1974 Electric Car

Today governments spend considerable time and resources in a phoney ‘war’ against terrorism. ‘Phoney’ because conventional troops cannot overcome guerilla tactics – as was proved to be the case in Northern Ireland.

The massive expenditure of public money on this ‘war’ is justified because terrorism grabs the imagination and emotions of voters – by it’s very nature as a font of repeated horrors.

You might be forgiven for wondering which is the greater issue – millions of citizens  (especially the young) dying of lung related diseases caused by internal combustion engines or citizens dying in terrorist related incidents?

When that question is considered statistically – resources should be allocated to each problem in proportion to amount of human misery and suffering it generates. They should not be allocated on the basis of which problem gets most votes and the most media coverage.

Regrettably terrorist acts will generally sell more newspapers than children dying silently in hospitals of lung diseases or adults with heart problems.

Newspapers  inflict the final blow of horror and despair on behalf of the terrorists into the hearts and minds of  victimised populations. Margaret Thatcher knew this and ordered a policy of non-reporting of terror related stories in Northern Ireland.

To his credit, the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has identified the toxic air of his city as a very real and serious contemporary problem. He has made small steps to reduce it – such as charging motorists of the most polluting vehicles to enter the centre of London. The European guidelines on air pollution were exceeded within the first two months in 2018 in London. Is this another reason for the UK to leave Europe? No more awkward tests of the atmosphere in our cities?

When the United Kingdom first became a member of the European Union one of the directives from the European Parliament was for the UK to clean up it’s bathing beaches.

This was duly ignored for the first year. Why should the UK not continue to send it’s children to play on filthy polluted beaches? But the following year the EU reminded the UK of it’s obligation in law. The UK reluctantly (one expects) began to clean up it’s inshore waters; beaches are now awarded Blue Flags for water quality and facilities.

Now in 2019 the River Thames in London has been transformed from a toxic environment in which nothing could live, into a clean river with fish and mammals such as seals – on view from the Houses of Parliament.

So why now should clean air be such an difficult objective for successive governments?

If the problem is short term planning on account of the four year term of office for elected representatives in parliament – then perhaps politicians need to start to deal with the complexity of uniting long term and short term objectives.

The current air pollution problems in the UK are not local – just look at Mombai and Beijing. There has to be consideration – however complex- on how to integrate solutions within complementary European and global strategies and policies.

Clean air has to be one of the most fundamental of human rights. If we cannot wish it on ourselves, how is it likely to ever happen for our long suffering environment?

Quick Quick Slow Slow

The British Raj in India was a colossal enterprise, whatever your views on its moral worth. It was set up in 1858 and ended in 1947, lasting almost one hundred years. The creation of the instruments of power and their administration were not simple. They were accompanied over time by the development of education, public health, railways, missions, industry, irrigation and other essential aspects of the colonisation.

The point of interest is the time which this took to establish. To say that it took almost one hundred years would not be an exaggeration. In effect, at the time of the rebellion and the handing back of rule, the process has continued as self rule took control, and continues to do so.

Vast undertakings take vast amounts of time at huge environmental, economic and social costs. The concept of colonisation was not new and had been exercised in many parts of Africa by the British before – so they knew the complexity involved.

Complexity always adds time to tasks whether political or such things as domestic repairs. At a certain point in home DIY for instance, you realise that you don’t know what you are doing or don’t have the skills and ring a professional trades person. The reason is that one person cannot know everything.

So when faced with the intention of a task, it is important to estimate how long it will take. Will it be completed this afternoon or in an hundred years?

Reluctantly – we should apply this understanding to the process of ‘Brexit’.

The initiation and development of the European Union goes back to the 1951 Treaty of Paris and the 1957 Treaty of Rome (although it could be argued that both Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolph Hitler and before them ‘Rome in the West‘ – sought to do the same by means of force rather than persuasion).

The institutions of the Union have themselves developed beyond their original aims of economic unity. The process to the present day has been complex and now involves over half a billion citizens.

It should not be expected to be unreasonable therefore that the process of leaving such an organisation is equally complex. What might be expected?

  1. Rules of leaving as agreed when joining.

  2. The Penalties for leaving as agreed when joining.

  3. The Process of leaving as agreed when joining.

  4. The preparation and planning, instigation, monitoring and completion of leaving.

Which leads to the question, ‘how long is this going to take?’

There appears to have been insufficient consideration during the formation of the European Union, to the process leaving the Union. It was after all, set up in the way of many religions, to attract new members. The unthinkable process of losing members is naturally inclined to become ‘unthinkable’.

The managerial notion of ‘we’ll deal with that at the time’ or ‘a dynamic assessment’ is not a good one when applied to organisations of this size and complexity.

Ordinary citizens can be forgiven for buying into such inane over simplifications as ‘Brexit means Brexit’. In the present western cultures where the idea of the expert is ridiculed and ordinary citizens believe themselves able to understand what they do not understand, a simple question like ‘do you want to leave the European Union‘ is not challenged as in itself, absurd.

Supported by the idea that ‘Britain once ruled over one quarter of the world’ – megalomania takes hold. The simpler the chants of those wishing to ignore complexity, the more supporters rally round.

If the problem was considered in the manner that civil servants are empowered to do, then almost certain more caution would be applied.

What is the aim?

What is already in place to achieve it?

What extra measures are needed to achieve it?

How long will it take to achieve it?

When will we know that the aim is accomplished?

These questions are the roots supporting the tree and like all roots, they extend in directions and distances unknown.

Suffice to say the withdrawal of any state from the European Union requires considerable planning and resources. The planning stage should start at the inception of the Union and be part of the conditions of joining – in order to simplify subsequent negotiations.

Any problems, such as politically sensitive borders, should be required to be solved prior to the start of leaving.

The process of leaving should be phased rather than all aspects negotiated and initiated ‘with immediate effect’.

The phases should be given generous time periods. The spectacle of the United Kingdom repeatedly applying for ‘extensions of time’  merely to start the withdrawal process is not something a manager of even a small company or organisation would be comfortable with.

Each phase would encompass one aspect of being a member of the European Union. In this way, proper consideration of the details of the present and proposed arrangements would be given.

Lessons should be learnt from the withdrawal of the European States from their colonies in Africa. Books could be written on this subject but in essence, there were problems created by the ‘political vacuum’ left after the transfers of power. These problems continue as symptoms at least, to the present day.

In my own way, I return to the reality that humans tend to become victims of their thoughts, rather than the masters.

It is possible to consider the absurd, and not realise that the matter is downright impossible to solve. Thinking itself is an inaccurate process, challenged continually by evidence from ‘the ground’.

So my own view of the process of leaving the European Union would be the phase each aspect and form consensus on this process based on the details of each phase.

To think that the process is simple and can be initiated at the stroke of a pen, has been done before. History as always is our teacher when this has happened.