‘All generalisations are wrong, including this one.’ This quotation attributed to Mark Twain, is an intriguing logic puzzle. Perhaps it hints, generalisations are sometimes correct? Of course they can be. If I said, ‘I am alive,’ that is true. So what’s wrong with generalisations? Can they trap our thinking into making statements that sound reasonable but are not?

Take the word, ‘immigrant’ as a current example. Are immigrants to a county going to bring problems or solutions? The more detailed the questions you ask the more complexity of thinking is needed. Are economic migrants desirable in a country not needing extra workers? Is an economy held back by losing skilled workers originally from other countries? Who enforces migration? Where are immigrants from? The questions are practically unlimited and yet a bigot will simplify matters to ‘immigrants go home’ or ‘no Muslims allowed into our country’. At worst it is absurd and at best it is unmanageable, simply because it will fail in the detail.

Think of the infamous Brexit question. Was anyone invited to discuss why this question was being asked? Did anyone debate how referendums should be run and what proportion of the vote constitutes clear public opinion? Did anyone present facts in the debate prior to the vote, which are now known? Governance is by definition simplifying complexity to enable broad decisions to be made. However without a debate and consequent understanding of important details, the question is flawed because the answer will not have been probed in depth. Socrates believed voters should be educated and informed otherwise the democratic process will reach an uninformed conclusion.

In Japan there is a tradition of producing elegant design solutions. However the designer and craftsman will have spent years learning details not apparent in the product.

Let us not be fooled by our conviction that we understanding things. We generally don’t and that, unfortunately, is a generalisation which is true.

‘All generalisations are wrong, including this one.’ This quotation attributed to Mark Twain, is an intriguing logic puzzle. Perhaps it hints, generalisations are sometimes correct? Of course they can be. If I said, ‘I am alive,’ that is true. So what’s wrong with generalisations? Can they trap our thinking into making statements that sound reasonable but are not?

Take the word, ‘immigrant’ as a current example. Are immigrants to a county going to bring problems or solutions? The more detailed the questions you ask the more complexity of thinking is needed. Are economic migrants desirable in a country not needing extra workers? Is an economy held back by losing skilled workers originally from other countries? Who enforces migration? Where are immigrants from? The questions are practically unlimited and yet a bigot will simplify matters to ‘immigrants go home’ or ‘no Muslims allowed into our country’. At worst it is absurd and at best it is unmanageable, simply because it will fail in the detail.

Think of the infamous Brexit question. Was anyone invited to discuss why this question was being asked? Did anyone debate how referendums should be run and what proportion of the vote constitutes clear public opinion? Did anyone present facts in the debate prior to the vote, which are now known? Governance is by definition simplifying complexity to enable broad decisions to be made. However without a debate and consequent understanding of important details, the question is flawed because the answer will not have been probed in depth. Socrates believed voters should be educated and informed otherwise the democratic process will reach an uninformed conclusion.

In Japan there is a tradition of producing elegant design solutions. However the designer and craftsman will have spent years learning details not apparent in the product.

Let us not be fooled by our conviction that we understanding things. We generally don’t and that, unfortunately, is a generalisation which is true.

A small boy prayed in church, ‘Dear Lord, if you can’t make me a better boy, don’t worry. I am having a great time as I am.’

Who is in control? What do I mean? Well, you either think you are in total control, or some supreme ‘intelligence’ is in control or something in between.

A child could be forgiven for being confused. We don’t really promote the idea of ‘free will’ too much in the West any longer. If you want something to change you ask God. God the big fixer. But I have things broken in the house that God has never fixed, which makes me more inclined towards the idea of free will. We have all been let loose and spilled out of the Garden of Eden with part of the forbidden fruit in our hand. Free will was the deal / punishment. Remember?

I hope this idea doesn’t upset Christians because it’s there in the Bible. We are in charge. It’s not total emersion in cold water like Leonardo de Caprio’s character in the film ‘Titanic’. We have been placed in a life boat from where we watched the Garden of Eden point it’s propellers into the air and sink. Not such a bad life boat either. There are lots of things to keep us comfortable. We should be okay for a while.

Being in charge of our small universes is analogous to the supreme intelligence. He or she organised the big scientific rules and then set the thing in motion. We organise the house, the car, the kids and then set the thing in motion. In our organisational skills we are also, ‘in the image of God’.

Every so often our small world gets so tough we ask for a miracle. I was pushing a guys car off a dangerous bend once. It wasn’t easy because I was on my own and it was uphill and anyone who has ever pushed cars knows the rule to always push a car downhill. But in this case I had no option. Things in the universe were about to collide any moment and God wasn’t interested. Not his problem. Well I was praying like crazy as I pushed and this guy who was quite elderly looked on. At the point when I realised I had run out of strength another man just appeared next to me and started pushing. Together we pushed the car to safety.

So was that a minor miracle? If so, who caused it? I believe we also have the same power as the supreme intelligence to make miracles happen, to make plants that have never had flowers jump an evolutionary barrier and bloom. When we really, really, really want something, it happens. God is happy for us but doesn’t take the credit.

So, you have made an unsinkable ship? Why the lifeboats?

This philosophy explains why bad things happen to good people. In a universe set to spin in certain directions and speeds within which random things happen, there is plenty of space junk. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunami all happen and although insurance companies put the blame on the Almighty, personally I prefer the geophysical explanations.

In such a random game shouldn’t we all be quaking in our boots? No, because bad stuff doesn’t happen very often and when it does, we have the power of miracles. Just read the stories of ‘lucky escapes’ from disasters. Sure the victims who lost their lives don’t get included in miracle stories but we all have our chances and the ability to increase our chances of staying alive. We don’t choose a house on a flood plain, and we don’t get flooded. That is free will, use it wisely.

The Arab countries who follow Islam are often depicted as being ‘fatalist’ but I often quote a saying they have, ‘trust in God, but tie up your camel first’. If you life in a desert, your life boat is your camel. Be nice to it.

 

 

We ignore the happenings in Catalonia at our peril, ‘we’ meaning the citizens of Europe. The first question an observer wants to know is ‘what do the Catalonians want?’. Well, we know they want independence from Spain, but that begs the question why?

I suspect that as with Brexit, there are multiple reasons. Some go back hundreds of years into the origins of the Spanish state as it is today. Some are about money, ‘why should we pay into the system more than we get out?’, some are about national pride, some see themselves as defending democracy, and there some facists in there as well.

The actions of the Spanish government during the referendum, placed the Catalan cause firmly on the high moral ground through it’s use of excessive and unecessary force.

So where will Catalonia go from here? Perhaps stepping back and taking a world view would introduce some clarity. We have seen the rise of shall we say, nationalism; a pride in one’s country, normally reserved for sports, song contests and the occasional war.

In North Korea we see national pride operating at almost every level of society, even into primary schools. At this extreme, nationalism becomes a powder keg that explodes into war, as seen in the Spanish Civil War in the last century, or WWII that followed. But I would love to read an essay by a physciatrist on what brings about national pride in an individual. Humans are well known for their loyalty to ‘the tribe’ whether in the football stadium, a school sports day (come on reds!), or an irrational obessession with symbols of national identity, like a flag. Follow the flag! Really?

Flags are all over Barcelona. I know because I was there the week before the referendum.

The North American Native people have a saying; ‘it is easy to be brave from a distance’. How true this is. We all fantasise about how we would do something against a protagonist, but rarely do when we get close.

That’s the thing with Catalonia. On it’s borders are benign European countries, unlikely to take up arms against them. But supposing France was Russia. Russia, who so ably moves into those ‘Russian speaking’ micro-states which were once Soviet satellites; Eastern Ukraine, Crimea. Where next? Estonia, Latvia? The People’s Republic of China has been playing the same game for decades, as we all saw by the varied national costumes in the opening parade to the Chinese hosted Olympic Games.

With a big bad wolf next door, I doubt Catalonia would be so keen to leave Spain and Europe, because in the end, war is a consumation devoutly not to be wished. Especially if you have no military forces. Would it still be part of NATO if independent? Lawyers please!

Somalia wished for and obtained indepence but has quickly been consumed by hostile neighbours.

This was one of the considerations not voiced very loudly if at all, in the debates prior to the Brexit vote. ‘What about National Security?’ Does Britain really want to lived next door to a divided or at worst disintegrating Europe? Do the Catalans?

There is an old adage, ‘united we stand, divided we fall.’ It’s so old it’s in Aesop’s Fables, only there it’s a bunch of sticks which are stronger than individual sticks. Corny, well used, old fashioned, yes, all of the above, but also true. And such an ‘inconvenient truth’ has been ignored because waving a flag and putting on uniforms are so much better at rousing emotion; emotions such as national pride. If you don’t believe me, watch footage of the Games of the XIth Olympiad in 1936. You might recognise someone on the podium, Chancellor Hitler I think was his name.

I wonder what happened to him?

 

North and South Korea are at war. They have been for decades now and appear to have learnt to live with it.

Then along came Mr Trump. He is right that previous administrations in his country have failed to solve matters in the Korean peninsula. Being an ally of South Korea makes it America’s business, but does it need to be America’s business? ‘America first’ was Mr Trumps borrowed election slogan so should he feel embarrassed if he backed out of previous administrations continued allying with South Korea? Do we really fear Communist China any longer? I would hope not. Yes, they are expanding into the South China sea, but wouldn’t you?

That’s not the unspoken option. It’s about nuclear weapons. I wonder who in the world is responsible for keeping this genie in the bottle? Non-proliferation is a great idea in principle but is it practical? Is it reasonable to assume all states that wish to acquire and then do acquire nuclear weapons, will play by international rules?

If there is any policing of non-proliferation to be done then I would say it should be done by the United Nations and not an individual state. If an individual state puts it’s head above the parapet and starts telling another what to do, an argument is going to start. Surprise! That is exactly what has happened.

Being well intentioned is not enough Mr President. You have to have the skill to bring about your intentions and so far the only option you appear to have followed is ‘intervene because no one else is’ and then ‘be ready for war’.

There are many other options and here is the one I recommend. Withdraw your navy, withdraw your air force. Consider withdrawing troops from South Korea. Back right off!

That way you will completely make a fool of Mr Kim. He uses other countries by provoking them into a reaction. That reaction he then uses to justify his building of military power to his people. He wants a nuclear bomb to defend his county. More or less the same reason all the countries with nuclear weapons want them, so is that unreasonable?

Make him look a fool Mr President. Leave him standing there with his war machine around his ankles and no enemy to point his rocket at. That is how bullies are overcome in the school playground, and that’s exactly how I would deal with the Korean Kid.

If it doesn’t work what’s the worst that can happen? He commits an act of war against another country. That would justify the country to defend itself and be justified in doing so. At the moment, the worst that can happen is America starting a war with North Korea and that will take away the moral high ground from America. If Mr Trump wants to learn from previous administrations, then he could learn the lesson they have shown by getting it wrong, not to invade other countries. It only ends with a power vacuum and horrors for civilians worse than they endure already e.g. Libya, Iraq. The Chinese will have said that to him.

Another way of controlling the spread of nuclear weapons? I would suggest putting a United Nations guard around every uranium mine in the world. It’s not going to prevent  thefts completely but it’s a more peaceful step than threatening to start a nuclear war with this, and the next and the next country to acquire nuclear weapons..

 

 

If you think nothing more can be said about the Brexit Referendum read on! For it appears to me that the simplicity of the referendum question lead to a chaos of interpretations about what the question actually was.

For instance, the Scottish National Party believe Scotland was voting for whether Scotland should remain or leave the European Union.

Let us remind ourselves what the question was;

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

I would suggest that not only some good souls in Scotland but Wales, England and Northern Ireland also felt that how their individual countries voted was significant, although that was not in the referendum question.

There were others who thought the question contained their personal concerns. Here are some examples;

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or have control of it’s money?

These voters were concerned at how much money the UK paid into Europe. They were less concerned about how much it received through the Common Agricultural Policy, research grants, etc. and if the UK is ‘out of pocket’.

The United Kingdom is a wealthy nation and whether it should give to the poor had not apparently occurred to them. Being wealthy is a heavy cross to bear, for an individual and a country, and perhaps Robin Hood did have a point.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or have control of it’s laws?

These voters cite some of the more absurd legislation from Brussels as indicative of all EU legislation. They were less concerned with the benefits of legislation such as the Human Rights Act, diversity and equality in the workplace, environment, manufacturing and food standards, working practices in the banking sector, etc.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or have control of it’s borders?

These voters were concerned about immigration into the UK in general and felt that Europeans already in the UK were a problem. They believed that leaving the EU was the best way to solve all immigration related problems, rather than presenting more reasoned and focused solutions. The fact that most immigrants come from outside Europe is an obvious consideration. Respecting EU citizens working in the UK and contributing to society through work, taxes, cultural sharing, was lost in the generality of the perceived ‘problem’. Defining what an immigrant is, might also be the beginning of understanding which strings to pull to create a desired change.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or become an independent Sovereign State?

The Victorian elite and ruling classes enjoyed the ‘good times’ and the consequences of their greed and exploitation affect our lives today. How nice it was to see the map of the world painted pink, without considering the blood sweat and tears of fellow human beings. Flag waving and Nationalism in general, contribute significantly to what you might term ’emotional politics’, the way of ‘feeling right’ that started World War II in Europe. Time to learn from history the importance of co-operation with other countries even if you have to grit your teeth!

What a huge advantage for business that English is the most widely spoken second language in Europe. What a huge advantage to the UK that it is connected to a continent by a tunnel. The same tunnel connects a continent to, well, mmm; England, Wales and Scotland. Not much of a come and visit us for Europeans, unless you like wet holidays.

In short, the referendum question was simplified so much, in the interest of being understood by everyone, that it became distorted by whatever personal perception interpreted it. A picture of a house for instance, will be understood by most as ‘a house’. A picture of a blank box could be interpreted as anything boxy shape; a money box, a bomb, treasure, grandpa’s ashes…

How many people know what the European Union and it’s various institutions is, and how the United Kingdom benefits or is disadvantaged by it’s membership? Very few, I suspect. Even political economists rarely agree, such is the complexity of running a Union as large as Europe, so how were voters ever meant to know?

There is an answer to the problem of leaving the EU that might appease both sides of the argument. That is, to join the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and so be eligible to be part of the European Economic Area (EEA). The benefits would be providing for the free movement of persons, goods, services and capital while not being part of the European Union. Scared by the idea of Europeans working in the UK? Perhaps the one million illegal immigrants already in the UK might be a better place to start enforcing UK citizenship and residency laws. Follow that with policing the borders vigilantly unlike when so-called Teresa May was Home Secretary. As well as stick the UK waves a large carrot that has people living in camps over the channel. Changing new comers rights to benefits, such as health and accommodation, might stop those after a free lunch (not available in many other EU countries such as Spain) from joining the queue.

Now that the question has it’s final answer, we have to get used to the intercontinental sized car crash that is going to be Brexit. We all voted for different things because we brought our perceptions to the question. That said, progress on negotiations is painfully slow with few bridge-builders in evidence and many wall-makers.

Witness the Euro bank notes. Each features a picture of a bridge as a symbol of unity and cooperation between different nations. Unity and cooperation in a continent that started two world wars, in my view, must be continued in the twenty first century.  If it is not then future generations will be holding a referendum on whether to remain out or enter the European Union. It might read something like this;

Should the United Kingdom remain a non-member of the European Union or join the European Union?

(Do not write on both sides of the examination paper at once)